资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The representation of aerosol activation into cloud droplets in climate models is important for accurate understanding of aerosol radiative impacts on the Arctic climate, but it remains highly uncertain. Here we show that the uncertainty range of subgrid vertical velocity (SVV) and maximum supersaturation (SSmax) in aerosol activation produces fourfold to fivefold differences in the direct radiative effect of black carbon (BC) in the Arctic (0.091–0.40 W m^–2) because SVV and SSmax determine the activated fraction and wet removal efficiency of aerosols. Aerosols are particularly sensitive to SVV in remote regions, but not near their sources because many aerosols near sources are not yet influenced by wet removal processes. Our results demonstrate that SVV treatment is a major source of uncertainty in Arctic aerosol simulations and may be key for reducing the large discrepancies among global models in estimates of BC and its radiative effects in the Arctic.