GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017GL073155
Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales
Bushuk, Mitchell1; Msadek, Rym2; Winton, Michael3; Vecchi, Gabriel A.1,4; Gudgel, Rich3; Rosati, Anthony3; Yang, Xiaosong3
2017-05-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2017
卷号44期号:10
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; France
英文摘要

Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). In this work, we move toward stakeholder-relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional forecast skill of Arctic sea ice in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) seasonal prediction system. Using a suite of retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981-2015 made with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land model, we show that predictions of detrended regional SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months. Regional prediction skill is highly region and target month dependent and generically exceeds the skill of an anomaly persistence forecast. We show for the first time that initializing the ocean subsurface in a seasonal prediction system can yield significant regional skill for winter SIE. Similarly, as suggested by previous work, we find that sea ice thickness initial conditions provide a crucial source of skill for regional summer SIE.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000404131900069
WOS关键词DYNAMICAL FORECAST SYSTEM ; CLIMATE MODEL ; THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION ; INITIAL CONDITIONS ; SHIPPING ROUTES ; SST ANOMALIES ; PREDICTABILITY ; EXTENT ; VARIABILITY ; REEMERGENCE
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28443
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
2.CNRS CERFACS, CECI UMR 5318, Toulouse, France;
3.Princeton Univ, NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
4.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
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GB/T 7714
Bushuk, Mitchell,Msadek, Rym,Winton, Michael,et al. Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(10).
APA Bushuk, Mitchell.,Msadek, Rym.,Winton, Michael.,Vecchi, Gabriel A..,Gudgel, Rich.,...&Yang, Xiaosong.(2017).Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(10).
MLA Bushuk, Mitchell,et al."Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.10(2017).
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