Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL073155 |
Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales | |
Bushuk, Mitchell1; Msadek, Rym2; Winton, Michael3; Vecchi, Gabriel A.1,4; Gudgel, Rich3; Rosati, Anthony3; Yang, Xiaosong3 | |
2017-05-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France |
英文摘要 | Recent Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction efforts and forecast skill assessments have primarily focused on pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). In this work, we move toward stakeholder-relevant spatial scales, investigating the regional forecast skill of Arctic sea ice in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) seasonal prediction system. Using a suite of retrospective initialized forecasts spanning 1981-2015 made with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land model, we show that predictions of detrended regional SIE are skillful at lead times up to 11 months. Regional prediction skill is highly region and target month dependent and generically exceeds the skill of an anomaly persistence forecast. We show for the first time that initializing the ocean subsurface in a seasonal prediction system can yield significant regional skill for winter SIE. Similarly, as suggested by previous work, we find that sea ice thickness initial conditions provide a crucial source of skill for regional summer SIE. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404131900069 |
WOS关键词 | DYNAMICAL FORECAST SYSTEM ; CLIMATE MODEL ; THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION ; INITIAL CONDITIONS ; SHIPPING ROUTES ; SST ANOMALIES ; PREDICTABILITY ; EXTENT ; VARIABILITY ; REEMERGENCE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28443 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 2.CNRS CERFACS, CECI UMR 5318, Toulouse, France; 3.Princeton Univ, NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 4.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bushuk, Mitchell,Msadek, Rym,Winton, Michael,et al. Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(10). |
APA | Bushuk, Mitchell.,Msadek, Rym.,Winton, Michael.,Vecchi, Gabriel A..,Gudgel, Rich.,...&Yang, Xiaosong.(2017).Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(10). |
MLA | Bushuk, Mitchell,et al."Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.10(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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