Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

doi:10.1126/science.abc2535

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abc2535
	Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
	Rachel E. Baker; Wenchang Yang; Gabriel A. Vecchi; C. Jessica E. Metcalf; Bryan T. Grenfell
	2020-07-17
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2020
英文摘要	In some quarters, it is hoped that increased humidity and higher temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere in the summer will snuff out the 2020 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. In reality, the situation is likely to be more complicated than that. Baker et al. used a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, testing different scenarios of climate dependence based on known coronavirus biology. Levels of susceptibility among the population remain the driving factor for the pandemic, and without effective control measures, the pandemic will persist in the coming months, causing severe outbreaks even in humid climates. Summer will not substantially limit pandemic growth. Science this issue p. [315][1] Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abc2535
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/284353
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rachel E. Baker,Wenchang Yang,Gabriel A. Vecchi,et al. Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic[J]. Science,2020.
APA	Rachel E. Baker,Wenchang Yang,Gabriel A. Vecchi,C. Jessica E. Metcalf,&Bryan T. Grenfell.(2020).Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Science.
MLA	Rachel E. Baker,et al."Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic".Science (2020).