Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105127 |
Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models | |
Alejandro Hermoso, Victor Homar, Jun-Ichi Yano | |
2020-07-14 | |
发表期刊 | Atmospheric Research |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The atmosphere is an exemplary case of uncertain system. The state of such systems is described by means of probability density functions which encompass uncertainty information. In this regard, the Liouville equation is the theoretical framework to predict the evolution of the state of uncertain systems. This study analyses the morphological characteristics of the time evolution of probability density functions for some low complexity geophysical systems by solving the Liouville equation in order to obtain tractable solutions which are otherwise unfeasible with currently available computational resources. The current and usual modest approach to overcome these obstacles and estimate the probability density function of the system in realistic weather and climate applications is the use of a discrete and small number of samples of the state of the system, evolved individually in a deterministic, perhaps sometimes stochastic, way. We investigate particular solutions of the shallow water equations and the barotropic model that allow to apply the Liouville formalism to explore its topological characteristics and interpret them in terms of the ensemble prediction system approach. We provide quantitative evidences of the high variability that solutions to Liouville equation may present, challenging currently accepted uses and interpretations of ensemble forecasts. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/284136 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alejandro Hermoso, Victor Homar, Jun-Ichi Yano. Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020. |
APA | Alejandro Hermoso, Victor Homar, Jun-Ichi Yano.(2020).Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models.Atmospheric Research. |
MLA | Alejandro Hermoso, Victor Homar, Jun-Ichi Yano."Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models".Atmospheric Research (2020). |
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