Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

doi:10.1126/science.abc3517

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abc3517
	Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
	Henrik Salje; Cécile Tran Kiem; Noémie Lefrancq; Noémie Courtejoie; Paolo Bosetti; Juliette Paireau; Alessio Andronico; Nathanaël Hozé; Jehanne Richet; Claire-Lise Dubost; Yann Le Strat; Justin Lessler; Daniel Levy-Bruhl; Arnaud Fontanet; Lulla Opatowski; Pierre-Yves Boelle; Simon Cauchemez
	2020-07-10
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2020
英文摘要	Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts. Science , this issue p. [208][1] France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abc3517
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/283405
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Henrik Salje,Cécile Tran Kiem,Noémie Lefrancq,et al. Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France[J]. Science,2020.
APA	Henrik Salje.,Cécile Tran Kiem.,Noémie Lefrancq.,Noémie Courtejoie.,Paolo Bosetti.,...&Simon Cauchemez.(2020).Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.Science.
MLA	Henrik Salje,et al."Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France".Science (2020).