资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Using a statistical method, we examined the time of emergence (ToE), which was defined as the year when the global mean surface temperature (GMST) trend exceeds the trend explained by Internal Variability (IV), using 33 CMIP5 climate models for 1861–2100. We found that the GMST trend explained by IV showed minimal changes even though the GMST trend rapidly increased under the RCP8.5 scenario. However, there was large inter‐model diversity for the ToEs in CMIP5 climate models. The intensity of Arctic amplification was closely associated with inter‐model diversity of the ToEs. A significant difference in the amount of Arctic sea ice extent during the reference period played a role in determining whether there was slow or fast simulation of the ToE in CMIP5 climate models. We argue that a slow or fast ToE is influenced by how the climate models initially simulate the sea ice extent during the reference period.