Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL087200 |
Dynamic amplification of subtropical extreme precipitation in a warming climate | |
Jesse Norris; Gang Chen; Chao Li | |
2020-07-08 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Projected precipitation changes in a warming climate vary considerably, spatially and between intensities. The changes can be greater or less than the ~7% K‐1 Clausius‐‐Clapeyron (CC) prediction, owing to dynamic effects. Using two global‐climate‐model large ensembles, we quantify the dynamically‐induced changes to precipitation extremes from the present (1996‐‐2005) to late‐21st‐Century (2071‐‐2080) climates, as a function of recurrence interval, focusing on the subtropics. We separate non‐CC changes into a term proportional to the present‐day vertical‐velocity spatial pattern (i.e., an amplification or damping thereof by a constant factor) and a residual. The amplitude term varies with recurrence interval, approximately canceling (doubling) CC for moderate (large) extremes, increasing precipitation variability. Contrastingly, the residual is quasi‐uniform across recurrence intervals but spatially heterogeneous, weakening extremes over dry zones. This residual may be related to Hadley Cell expansion, although this explanation is insufficient to explain many features, and other possible mechanisms are discussed. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/283285 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jesse Norris,Gang Chen,Chao Li. Dynamic amplification of subtropical extreme precipitation in a warming climate[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Jesse Norris,Gang Chen,&Chao Li.(2020).Dynamic amplification of subtropical extreme precipitation in a warming climate.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Jesse Norris,et al."Dynamic amplification of subtropical extreme precipitation in a warming climate".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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