资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

(9 July 2020) – The global annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in each of the coming five years (2020-2024), according to new climate predictions issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) today.
 
They said there was a 20% chance that it will exceed 1.5°C in at least one year.
The earth’s average temperature is already over 1˚C above the pre-industrial period. The last five-year period (2015 – 2019) has been the warmest five years on record. 


WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update “shows the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2˚C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5˚C.” He said governments should embrace climate action as part of recovery programmes and “ensure that we grow back better”.


Responding to the WMO announcement, Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, global leader of WWF’s climate and energy practice, said: “The sobering climate outlook for the next five years, released today by the World Meteorological Organization, clearly outlines the scale of the climate challenge we face.
 
“Leaders must take advantage of the economic stimulus and recovery plans being formulated now to include bold measures to address climate change. The opportunity to transform key sectors, reinforce new behaviours and move to a 1.5℃ aligned future requires us to act now. All elements of the plans must be climate friendly and environmentally sustainable.”
 
Highlights from the Global Annual Decadal Update report:

• Annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C
• There is a ~70% chance that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels
• There is a ~20% chance that one of the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels, but the chance is increasing with time
• It is extremely unlikely (~3%) that the 5 year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels
• Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans, are likely to be warmer than the recent past
• Over 2020-2024, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer
• Over 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe
• In 2020, large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average)
• In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean
• The smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere
• In 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past

 
For further information, contact Mandy Jean Woods mwoods@wwfint.org