Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0821-1 |
Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity | |
Bonfils, Celine J. W.1; Santer, Benjamin D.1; Fyfe, John C.2; Marvel, Kate3,4; Phillips, Thomas J.1; Zimmerman, Susan R. H.5 | |
2020-07-06 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2020 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | Large-scale mechanisms causing regional drying are not well understood. Models and observational data reveal that human-caused changes in GHGs and aerosols led to detectable global and hemispheric signals in the joint behaviour of precipitation, temperature and aridity since the 1950s. Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach(1,2)to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint,F-M1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet-dry patterns(3)and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint,F-M2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast(4,5), associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone(6-9)and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California(10), the Sahel(11,12)and India.F-M2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950-2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000545939000002 |
WOS关键词 | ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL ; GREENHOUSE GASES ; CLIMATE RESPONSE ; PRECIPITATION ; HYDROCLIMATE ; VARIABILITY ; ATTRIBUTION ; DETECTABILITY ; CHALLENGES ; ERUPTIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/282720 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison PCDM, Livermore, CA 94550 USA; 2.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada; 3.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Math & Appl Phys, New York, NY USA; 4.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 5.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Ctr Accelerator Mass Spectrometry CAMS, Livermore, CA 94550 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bonfils, Celine J. W.,Santer, Benjamin D.,Fyfe, John C.,et al. Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2020. |
APA | Bonfils, Celine J. W.,Santer, Benjamin D.,Fyfe, John C.,Marvel, Kate,Phillips, Thomas J.,&Zimmerman, Susan R. H..(2020).Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE. |
MLA | Bonfils, Celine J. W.,et al."Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020). |
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