Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations

July 2, 2020

Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang

There is no simple or reliable way to define Russian “gray area” or “hybrid” civil and military operations that affect U.S. strategic interests. Many Russian low-level operations, military claims, and political acts are reported as only serving commercial interests, reflecting local claims or interests, or supporting Russia’s broader security needs.

The impact of gray zone operations on Russia’s strategic competition with the United States may be highly indirect, and the motives behind Russian actions may be highly uncertain. Many of these activities described in this chronology also do not have a direct impact on competition with the United States but have an impact on U.S. strategic partners, other states, and non-state actors. There also are gray zone operations that are not described accurately in open source literature or may not even be reported at all.  

Much of the available reporting also is written in ways that highly compartmentalize civil, economic, and military activities. Military exercises involving air, land, and maritime claims are often described in tactical terms, but not in ways that explain that they too are a form of competition. Similarly, the motives behind civil activities like investments and major civil projects may only be reported in terms of their commercial merit or benefits, and not their overall strategic impact with the United States. 

The Uncertain Contents of this Chronology

This chronology is a rough working attempt to illustrate the full range and depth of Russian competitive activities. Many of the entries are uncertain or ambiguous, while many more have almost certainly been omitted or have never been reported. A full analysis would involve a wide range of country experts and military experts. It also would require substantial intelligence analysis at classified levels to be truly comprehensive. 

It still, however, illustrates the broader patterns of Russian activity in competing with the United States and serves as a starting point for a far more comprehensive analysis. An additional analysis of how U.S. competition with Russia interacts with U.S. strategic competition with China is provided in a separate Burke Chair analysis, entitled U.S. Competition with China and Russia: The Crisis-Driven Need to Change U.S. Strategy. This report is available on the CSIS website here.

Comments and Suggested Additions and Corrections

This is a rough working paper. Please send comments and suggest additions and corrections to Anthony H. Cordesman, Burke Chair in Strategy, CSIS, at acordesman@gmail.com.

This report entitled, Chronology of Possible Russian Gray Area and Hybrid Warfare Operations, is available for download here. .

Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He has served as a consultant on Afghanistan to the United States Department of Defense and the United States Department of State.