Quantitative  evaluation  of  the  uncertainty  sources  for  the  modeling  of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris city

doi:10.5194/acp-2020-540

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.5194/acp-2020-540
	Quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty sources for the modeling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris city
	Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais
	2020-07-03
发表期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
出版年	2020
英文摘要	The top-down atmospheric inversion method that couples atmospheric CO₂ observations with an atmospheric transport model has been used extensively to quantify CO₂ emissions from cities. However, the potential of the method is limited by several sources of misfits between the measured and modeled CO₂ that are of different origins than the targeted CO₂ emissions. This study investigates the critical sources of errors that can compromise the estimates of the city-scale emissions and identifies the signal of emissions that has to be filtered when doing inversions. A set of one-year forward simulations is carried out using the WRF-Chem model at a horizontal resolution of 1 km focusing on the Paris area with different anthropogenic emission inventories, physical parameterizations and CO₂ boundary conditions. The simulated CO₂ concentrations are compared with in situ observations from six continuous monitoring stations located within Paris and its vicinity. Results highlight large nighttime observation-model misfits, especially in winter within the city, which are attributed to large uncertainties in the diurnal profile of anthropogenic emissions as well as to errors in the vertical mixing near the surface in the WRF-Chem model. The nighttime biogenic respiration to the CO₂ concentration is a significant source of modeling errors during the growing season outside the city. When winds are from continental Europe and the CO₂ concentration of incoming air masses is influenced by remote emissions and large-scale biogenic fluxes, differences in the simulated CO₂ induced by the two different boundary conditions (CAMS and CarbonTracker) can be of up to 5 ppm. Our results suggest three selection criteria for the CO₂ data to be assimilated for the inversion of CO₂ emissions from Paris (i) discard data that appear as statistical outliers in the model-data misfits which are interpreted as model's deficiencies under complex meteorological conditions; (ii) use only afternoon urban measurements in winter and suburban ones in summer; (iii) test the influence of different boundary conditions in inversions. If possible, using additional observations to constrain the boundary inflow, or using CO₂ gradients of upwind-downwind stations, rather than absolute CO₂ concentration, as atmospheric inversion inputs.
领域	地球科学
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文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/281717
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais. Quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty sources for the modeling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris city[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2020.
APA	Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais.(2020).Quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty sources for the modeling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris city.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
MLA	Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais."Quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty sources for the modeling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris city".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2020).