Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR025286 |
Many Commonly Used Rainfall-Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections | |
Fowler, Keirnan1; Knoben, Wouter J. M.2; Peel, Murray C.1; Peterson, Tim J.1,3; Ryu, Dongryeol1; Saft, Margarita1; Seo, Ki-Weon4; Western, Andrew1 | |
2020-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 56期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Canada; South Korea |
英文摘要 | Evidence suggests that catchment state variables such as groundwater can exhibit multiyear trends. This means that their state may reflect not only recent climatic conditions but also climatic conditions in past years or even decades. Here we demonstrate that five commonly used conceptual "bucket" rainfall-runoff models are unable to replicate multiyear trends exhibited by natural systems during the "Millennium Drought" in south-east Australia. This causes an inability to extrapolate to different climatic conditions, leading to poor performance in split sample tests. Simulations are examined from five models applied in 38 catchments, then compared with groundwater data from 19 bores and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data for two geographic regions. Whereas the groundwater and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data decrease from high to low values gradually over the duration of the 13-year drought, the model storages go from high to low values in a typical seasonal cycle. This is particularly the case in the drier, flatter catchments. Once the drought begins, there is little room for decline in the simulated storage, because the model "buckets" are already "emptying" on a seasonal basis. Since the effects of sustained dry conditions cannot accumulate within these models, we argue that they should not be used for runoff projections in a drying climate. Further research is required to (a) improve conceptual rainfall-runoff models, (b) better understand circumstances in which multiyear trends in state variables occur, and (c) investigate links between these multiyear trends and changes in rainfall-runoff relationships in the context of a changing climate. |
英文关键词 | rainfall-runoff modeling drought climate change |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000537736400028 |
WOS关键词 | CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ; SURFACE-WATER ; GROUNDWATER STORAGE ; MULTIYEAR DROUGHT ; SIMULATING RUNOFF ; NON-STATIONARITY ; CATCHMENT ; IMPACT ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280668 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Parkville, Vic, Australia; 2.Univ Saskatchewan, Coldwater Lab, Canmore, AB, Canada; 3.Monash Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 4.Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Earth Sci Educ, Seoul, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fowler, Keirnan,Knoben, Wouter J. M.,Peel, Murray C.,et al. Many Commonly Used Rainfall-Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2020,56(5). |
APA | Fowler, Keirnan.,Knoben, Wouter J. M..,Peel, Murray C..,Peterson, Tim J..,Ryu, Dongryeol.,...&Western, Andrew.(2020).Many Commonly Used Rainfall-Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,56(5). |
MLA | Fowler, Keirnan,et al."Many Commonly Used Rainfall-Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 56.5(2020). |
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