Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR026166 |
Using Natural Experiments and Counterfactuals for Causal Assessment: River Salinity and the Ganges Water Agreement | |
Penny, Gopal1,2; Mondal, M. Shahjahan3; Biswas, Subir3; Bolster, Diogo1,2; Tank, Jennifer L.2,4; Mueller, Marc F.1,2 | |
2020-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 56期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Bangladesh |
英文摘要 | The effect of environmental policy on water resources is often challenging to evaluate due to dynamic interactions between people and water, particularly in data-scarce watersheds. Increasing interactions between society and hydrology present a need to understand causal relations for improved assessment and prediction in complex human-water systems. Conventional approaches to causal assessment in hydrology are sometimes insufficient due to data scarcity or system complexity. We argue that natural experiments present a promising and complementary avenue for assessing causal relations in such systems. In this spirit, we describe a natural experiment to assess causal effects of the Ganges water treaty, between India and Bangladesh, on streamflow and channel salinity in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. We apply causal inference to assess the effect of the treaty on streamflow and use the results to generate synthetic ensembles of streamflow and salinity under a realistic scenario (with the treaty) and a counterfactual scenario (without the treaty). We then use synthetic streamflow ensembles to model salinity ensembles. The Ganges water treaty increased dry-season streamflow in Bangladesh by approximately 18% and decreased channel salinity by approximately 10%. The treaty has the greatest effect on salinity in Bangladesh in the driest years, but the overall effect is small compared with natural variability. We show that our approach accounts for natural hydrologic variability to accurately assess the causal effect of the treaty, compared with a naive approach that greatly overestimates the effect. This research demonstrates the value of natural experiments for causal assessment in coupled human-water systems. Key Points Natural experiments and counterfactuals are promising tools for causal assessment We use a natural experiment and generate counterfactuals to assess the effect of the Ganges water treaty on streamflow and salinity The Ganges water treaty plays a modest yet important role in reducing salinity in the delta in Bangladesh |
英文关键词 | causal inference transboundary treaty difference in difference India Bangladesh delta |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000538987800019 |
WOS关键词 | SOCIO-HYDROLOGY ; LAND-USE ; SCIENCE ; STREAMFLOW ; CATCHMENT ; TRAGEDY ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280621 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Civil & Environm Engn & Earth Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA; 2.Univ Notre Dame, Environm Change Initiat, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA; 3.Bangladesh Univ Engn & Technol, Inst Water & Flood Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh; 4.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Penny, Gopal,Mondal, M. Shahjahan,Biswas, Subir,et al. Using Natural Experiments and Counterfactuals for Causal Assessment: River Salinity and the Ganges Water Agreement[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2020,56(4). |
APA | Penny, Gopal,Mondal, M. Shahjahan,Biswas, Subir,Bolster, Diogo,Tank, Jennifer L.,&Mueller, Marc F..(2020).Using Natural Experiments and Counterfactuals for Causal Assessment: River Salinity and the Ganges Water Agreement.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,56(4). |
MLA | Penny, Gopal,et al."Using Natural Experiments and Counterfactuals for Causal Assessment: River Salinity and the Ganges Water Agreement".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 56.4(2020). |
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