Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends

doi:10.1002/2017GL074964

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1002/2017GL074964
	Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends
	Kostov, Yavor 1; Ferreira, David 2; Armour, Kyle C.3,4; Marshall, John 5
	2018-01-28
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
出版年	2018
卷号	45 期号:2 页码:1086-1097
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	England; USA
英文摘要	We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations.
英文关键词	Southern Ocean CMIP5 Southern Annular Mode greenhouse gas forcing climate variability ozone forcing
领域	气候变化
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000425514300067
WOS关键词	ANTARCTIC SEA-ICE ; HEMISPHERE CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CMIP5 MODELS ; TRANSIENT-RESPONSE ; STRATOSPHERIC OZONE ; ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; CIRCULATION ; WINDS ; BIAS
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28055
专题	气候变化
作者单位	1.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England; 2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Univ Washington, Sch Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 4.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 5.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kostov, Yavor,Ferreira, David,Armour, Kyle C.,et al. Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(2):1086-1097.
APA	Kostov, Yavor,Ferreira, David,Armour, Kyle C.,&Marshall, John.(2018).Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(2),1086-1097.
MLA	Kostov, Yavor,et al."Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.2(2018):1086-1097.