Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR025771 |
A Parsimonious Empirical Approach to Streamflow Recession Analysis and Forecasting | |
Delforge, Damien1,2; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael3; Van Camp, Michel2; Vanclooster, Marnik1 | |
2020-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 56期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium; USA |
英文摘要 | For more than a century, the study of streamflow recession has been dominated by seemingly physically based parametric methods that make assumptions on the nonlinear nature of the hydrograph recession. In practice, several studies have shown that various degrees of nonlinearity occur in the same time series and that parametric methods can underfit nonlinear recession patterns. As a result, these methods are often applied empirically to each recession segment. We propose a parsimonious data-driven model, EDM-Simplex, with two objectives: forecasting recession and characterizing its nonlinear behavior. We evaluate the new model through a global sensitivity analysis applied to three distinctive hydrograph series from a heterogeneous karstic catchment. The results show excellent 1-day-ahead forecasting performance (median Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.99) for all time series with four recession extraction methods. The sensitivity analysis also showed that empirical nonlinearity, that is, sensitivity to initial conditions, is best estimated through the absolute forecast performance and its decline over time. This indicator leads to different interpretations of nonlinearity compared to previous methods but is just as sensitive to the choice of recession extraction method. In particular, when forecasts were made for recession segments containing early stages of recession or flow anomalies, the upstream recession was significantly more linear than the downstream recession hydrographs affected by the karst. Consequently, our results support future research to interpret observed nonlinearities as a function of the catchment hydrological states for better integration of empirical, physical-based, and operational approaches to recession analysis. |
英文关键词 | streamflow recession analysis data-driven models nonlinear dynamics karst |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000535672800061 |
WOS关键词 | BASEFLOW RECESSION ; FLOW RECESSION ; DYNAMICS ; STORAGE ; CLASSIFICATION ; HYDROGRAPHS ; ALGORITHMS ; GEOMETRY ; MODELS ; SCALE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280537 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Catholic Univ Louvain, Earth & Life Inst, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium; 2.Royal Observ Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; 3.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Delforge, Damien,Munoz-Carpena, Rafael,Van Camp, Michel,et al. A Parsimonious Empirical Approach to Streamflow Recession Analysis and Forecasting[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2020,56(2). |
APA | Delforge, Damien,Munoz-Carpena, Rafael,Van Camp, Michel,&Vanclooster, Marnik.(2020).A Parsimonious Empirical Approach to Streamflow Recession Analysis and Forecasting.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,56(2). |
MLA | Delforge, Damien,et al."A Parsimonious Empirical Approach to Streamflow Recession Analysis and Forecasting".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 56.2(2020). |
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