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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076337 |
Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall | |
Dunstone, Nick1; 39;Reilly, Chris2 | |
2018-04-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:7页码:3246-3254 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r similar to 0.5, p < 0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g., wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g., dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapor into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general-although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses), very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skillful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435743400043 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OCEAN ; CLIMATE ; OSCILLATION ; PRECIPITATION ; CONFIGURATION ; 20TH-CENTURY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28040 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dunstone, Nick,39;Reilly, Chris. Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(7):3246-3254. |
APA | Dunstone, Nick,&39;Reilly, Chris.(2018).Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(7),3246-3254. |
MLA | Dunstone, Nick,et al."Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.7(2018):3246-3254. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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