Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0308.1 |
Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'" | |
Sun, Y. Qiang1,2; Zhang, Fuqing3,4; Magnusson, Linus5; Buizza, Roberto5; Chen, Jan-Huey2; Emanuel, Kerry6 | |
2020-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 77期号:2页码:787-793 |
文章类型 | Editorial Material |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | In their comment, Zagar and Szunyogh raised concerns about a recent study by Zhang et al. that examined the predictability limit of midlatitude weather using two up-to-date global models. Zhang et al. showed that deterministic weather forecast may, at best, be extended by 5 days, assuming we could achieve minimal initial-condition uncertainty (e.g., 10% of current operational value) with a nearly perfect model. Zagar and Szunyogh questioned the methodology and the experiments of Zhang et al. Specifically, Zagar and Szunyogh raised issues regarding the effects of model error on the growth of the forecast uncertainty. They also suggested that estimates of the predictability limit could be obtained using a simple parametric model. This reply clarifies the misunderstandings in Zagar and Szunyogh and demonstrates that experiments conducted by Zhang et al. are reasonable. In our view, the model error concern in Zagar and Szunyogh does not apply to the intrinsic predictability limit, which is the key focus of Zhang et al. and the simple parametric model described in Zagar and Szunyogh does not serve the purpose of Zhang et al. |
英文关键词 | Error analysis Forecasting Numerical weather prediction forecasting Operational forecasting Ensembles Model errors |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000515827800004 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY ; ERROR GROWTH ; UNCERTAINTIES ; CONVECTION ; ENSEMBLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280288 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 4.Penn State Univ, Ctr Adv Data Assimilat & Predictabil Tech, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 5.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England; 6.MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Y. Qiang,Zhang, Fuqing,Magnusson, Linus,et al. Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'"[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2020,77(2):787-793. |
APA | Sun, Y. Qiang,Zhang, Fuqing,Magnusson, Linus,Buizza, Roberto,Chen, Jan-Huey,&Emanuel, Kerry.(2020).Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,77(2),787-793. |
MLA | Sun, Y. Qiang,et al."Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'"".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 77.2(2020):787-793. |
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