GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1175/JAS-D-19-0308.1
Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'"
Sun, Y. Qiang1,2; Zhang, Fuqing3,4; Magnusson, Linus5; Buizza, Roberto5; Chen, Jan-Huey2; Emanuel, Kerry6
2020-02-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
ISSN0022-4928
EISSN1520-0469
出版年2020
卷号77期号:2页码:787-793
文章类型Editorial Material
语种英语
国家USA; England
英文摘要

In their comment, Zagar and Szunyogh raised concerns about a recent study by Zhang et al. that examined the predictability limit of midlatitude weather using two up-to-date global models. Zhang et al. showed that deterministic weather forecast may, at best, be extended by 5 days, assuming we could achieve minimal initial-condition uncertainty (e.g., 10% of current operational value) with a nearly perfect model. Zagar and Szunyogh questioned the methodology and the experiments of Zhang et al. Specifically, Zagar and Szunyogh raised issues regarding the effects of model error on the growth of the forecast uncertainty. They also suggested that estimates of the predictability limit could be obtained using a simple parametric model. This reply clarifies the misunderstandings in Zagar and Szunyogh and demonstrates that experiments conducted by Zhang et al. are reasonable. In our view, the model error concern in Zagar and Szunyogh does not apply to the intrinsic predictability limit, which is the key focus of Zhang et al. and the simple parametric model described in Zagar and Szunyogh does not serve the purpose of Zhang et al.


英文关键词Error analysis Forecasting Numerical weather prediction forecasting Operational forecasting Ensembles Model errors
领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000515827800004
WOS关键词ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY ; ERROR GROWTH ; UNCERTAINTIES ; CONVECTION ; ENSEMBLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280288
专题地球科学
作者单位1.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA;
3.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
4.Penn State Univ, Ctr Adv Data Assimilat & Predictabil Tech, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
5.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England;
6.MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
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GB/T 7714
Sun, Y. Qiang,Zhang, Fuqing,Magnusson, Linus,et al. Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'"[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2020,77(2):787-793.
APA Sun, Y. Qiang,Zhang, Fuqing,Magnusson, Linus,Buizza, Roberto,Chen, Jan-Huey,&Emanuel, Kerry.(2020).Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,77(2),787-793.
MLA Sun, Y. Qiang,et al."Reply to "Comments on 'What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?'"".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 77.2(2020):787-793.
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