资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

In this paper, the impact of winter Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) decline over Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, and Labrador Sea (BDL) on Greenland blocking (GB) is first examined. It is found that the GB has a longer duration, a more notable westward movement, and a larger zonal scale in the low SIC winter than in the high SIC winter. In particular, the decay of GB may become slower than its growth in the low SIC winter, but the reverse is seen in the high SIC winter. The GB in the low SIC winter can have a more important impact on cold anomalies over North American midlatitudes than in the high SIC winter because of its slower decay and stronger retrogression. The influence of large BDL SIC loss on the GB mainly through reduced meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) related to reduced zonal winds over the North Atlantic mid- to high latitudes (NAMH) due to BDL warming is further examined by using the nonlinear phase speed and energy dispersion speed formula of blocking based on a nonlinear wave packet theory of atmospheric blocking. In this theory, the preexisting synoptic-scale eddies rather than the eddy straining or deformation is important for the blocking intensification and maintenance, which contradicts the eddy straining theory of Shutts. It is revealed from this theoretical model that under weaker NAMH zonal wind conditions the energy dispersion speed of GB may become smaller due to weaker PVy during its decaying phase than during the blocking growing phase, in addition to the GB having larger negative phase speed and stronger nonlinearity. The opposite is true when the PVy is larger. Thus, under a large SIC loss condition the GB shows notable retrogression, large zonal scales, and a long lifetime, which has a slower decay than its growth.