资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The diurnal variation of the global electric circuit (GEC) is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model by estimating contributions of grid columns to the ionospheric potential (IP). A parameterization based on cutting off the grid columns with shallow convection and estimating the area covered by GEC generators (electrified clouds) in each column from the amount of precipitation yields the IP variation of the same shape as the classical Carnegie curve with a correlation coefficient of 0.97, although with a smaller peak-to-peak amplitude (18% against 34% of the mean) and maxima and minima shifted by 1-2 hr. It is shown that omission in the IP parameterization of either convective activity or the area covered by electrified clouds (estimated using the calculated precipitation) would result in poor similarity between the modeled IP variation and the classical Carnegie curve. The results of simulation show the best agreement with the Carnegie data during Northern Hemisphere winters; the shape of the simulated diurnal variation of the IP substantially changes throughout the year owing to the decrease of South America's contribution and the increase of Southern Asia's contribution in summer. The discrepancies between the results of modeling and the results of observations are probably caused by the limited ability of large-scale models to differentiate between electrified and nonelectrified clouds. Further improvement of the parameterization of the IP in models of atmospheric dynamics requires using finer grids, which should allow computing microphysical characteristics of clouds and estimating source currents more accurately.