GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2019JD032345
Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models
Ayarzaguena, B.1; Charlton-Perez, A. J.2; Butler, A. H.3; Hitchcock, P.4; Simpson, I. R.5; Polvani, L. M.6; Butchart, N.7; Gerber, E. P.8; Gray, L.9; Hassler, B.10; Lin, P.11; Lott, F.12; Manzini, E.13; Mizuta, R.14; Orbe, C.15; Osprey, S.9; Saint-Martin, D.16; Sigmond, M.17; Taguchi, M.18; Volodin, E. M.19; Watanabe, S.20
2020-03-27
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2020
卷号125期号:6
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain; England; USA; Germany; France; Japan; Canada; Russia
英文摘要

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO(2)) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO(2) forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near-surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO(2) forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.


英文关键词sudden stratospheric warming CMIP6 stratosphere-troposphere coupling climate change
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000529111600018
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE ; POLAR VORTEX ; SIMPLE AGCM ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; OZONE ; JET ; CIRCULATION ; SENSITIVITY
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280124
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Fis Tierra & Astrofis, Madrid, Spain;
2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England;
3.NOAA, Cooperat Inst Environm Sci CIRES, Chem Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA;
4.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA;
5.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
6.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA;
7.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England;
8.NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, New York, NY USA;
9.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, NCAS Climate, Oxford, England;
10.Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt DLR Oberpfaffenh, Wessling, Germany;
11.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
12.Ecole Normale Super, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France;
13.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany;
14.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan;
15.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
16.Univ Toulouse, Meteo France, CNRM, CNRS, Toulouse, France;
17.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada;
18.Aichi Univ Educ, Dept Earth Sci, Kariya, Aichi, Japan;
19.Marchuk Inst Numer Math, Moscow, Russia;
20.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
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GB/T 7714
Ayarzaguena, B.,Charlton-Perez, A. J.,Butler, A. H.,et al. Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2020,125(6).
APA Ayarzaguena, B..,Charlton-Perez, A. J..,Butler, A. H..,Hitchcock, P..,Simpson, I. R..,...&Watanabe, S..(2020).Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(6).
MLA Ayarzaguena, B.,et al."Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.6(2020).
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