Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD032345 |
Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models | |
Ayarzaguena, B.1; Charlton-Perez, A. J.2; Butler, A. H.3; Hitchcock, P.4; Simpson, I. R.5; Polvani, L. M.6; Butchart, N.7; Gerber, E. P.8; Gray, L.9; Hassler, B.10; Lin, P.11; Lott, F.12; Manzini, E.13; Mizuta, R.14; Orbe, C.15; Osprey, S.9; Saint-Martin, D.16; Sigmond, M.17; Taguchi, M.18; Volodin, E. M.19; Watanabe, S.20 | |
2020-03-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 125期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain; England; USA; Germany; France; Japan; Canada; Russia |
英文摘要 | Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO(2)) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO(2) forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near-surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO(2) forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling. |
英文关键词 | sudden stratospheric warming CMIP6 stratosphere-troposphere coupling climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000529111600018 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE ; POLAR VORTEX ; SIMPLE AGCM ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; OZONE ; JET ; CIRCULATION ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280124 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Fis Tierra & Astrofis, Madrid, Spain; 2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 3.NOAA, Cooperat Inst Environm Sci CIRES, Chem Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA; 4.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA; 5.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 6.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA; 7.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 8.NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, New York, NY USA; 9.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, NCAS Climate, Oxford, England; 10.Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt DLR Oberpfaffenh, Wessling, Germany; 11.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 12.Ecole Normale Super, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France; 13.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 14.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 15.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 16.Univ Toulouse, Meteo France, CNRM, CNRS, Toulouse, France; 17.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada; 18.Aichi Univ Educ, Dept Earth Sci, Kariya, Aichi, Japan; 19.Marchuk Inst Numer Math, Moscow, Russia; 20.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ayarzaguena, B.,Charlton-Perez, A. J.,Butler, A. H.,et al. Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2020,125(6). |
APA | Ayarzaguena, B..,Charlton-Perez, A. J..,Butler, A. H..,Hitchcock, P..,Simpson, I. R..,...&Watanabe, S..(2020).Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(6). |
MLA | Ayarzaguena, B.,et al."Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.6(2020). |
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