Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD031273 |
Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models | |
Son, Seok-Woo1; Kim, Hera1; Song, Kanghyun1; Kim, Sang-Wook1; Martineau, Patrick2; Hyun, Yu-Kyung3; Kim, Yoonjae3 | |
2020-02-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 125期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; Japan |
英文摘要 | The deterministic prediction skill of the 10 operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project is assessed for both the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere. Based on the mean squared skill score of 50- and 500-hPa geopotential height forecasts, the overall prediction skill is on average 16 days in the stratosphere and 9 days in the troposphere. The high-top models with a fully resolved stratosphere typically have a higher prediction skill than the low-top models. Among them, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows the best performance in both hemispheres. The decomposition of model errors reveals that eddy errors are more important than zonal-mean errors in both the stratosphere and troposphere. While the errors in the stratosphere are dominated by planetary-scale eddies, those in the troposphere are equally influenced by planetary- and synoptic-scale eddies. This result indicates that subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction could be improved by better representing planetary-scale wave activities in the model. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000519227000012 |
WOS关键词 | STRATOSPHERE ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280091 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea; 2.Univ Tokyo, Res Ctr Adv Sci & Technol, Tokyo, Japan; 3.Natl Inst Meteorol Res, Earth Syst Res Div, Jeju, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Son, Seok-Woo,Kim, Hera,Song, Kanghyun,et al. Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2020,125(4). |
APA | Son, Seok-Woo.,Kim, Hera.,Song, Kanghyun.,Kim, Sang-Wook.,Martineau, Patrick.,...&Kim, Yoonjae.(2020).Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(4). |
MLA | Son, Seok-Woo,et al."Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.4(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论