Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD030923 |
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling | |
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.1; Butler, Amy H.2,3; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.4; Ayarzaguena, Blanca5,6; Baldwin, Mark P.7,8; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne9,10; Furtado, Jason C.11; Garfinkel, Chaim I.12; Hitchcock, Peter13; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.14; Kim, Hera15; Knight, Jeff16; Lang, Andrea L.17; Lim, Eun-Pa18; Marshall, Andrew18; Roff, Greg18; Schwartz, Chen12; Simpson, Isla R.19; Son, Seok-Woo15; Taguchi, Masakazu20 | |
2020-01-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 125期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; USA; England; Spain; Norway; Israel; Finland; South Korea; Australia; Japan |
英文摘要 | The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S prediction systems to capture two important links between the stratosphere and troposphere: (1) changes in probabilistic prediction skill in the extratropical stratosphere by precursors in the tropics and the extratropical troposphere and (2) changes in surface predictability in the extratropics after stratospheric weak and strong vortex events. Probabilistic skill exists for stratospheric events when including extratropical tropospheric precursors over the North Pacific and Eurasia, though only a limited set of models captures the Eurasian precursors. Tropical teleconnections such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation increase the probabilistic skill of the polar vortex strength, though these are only captured by a limited set of models. At the surface, predictability is increased over the United States, Russia, and the Middle East for weak vortex events, but not for Europe, and the change in predictability is smaller for strong vortex events for all prediction systems. Prediction systems with poorly resolved stratospheric processes represent this skill to a lesser degree. Altogether, the analyses indicate that correctly simulating stratospheric variability and stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling are critical elements for skillful S2S wintertime predictions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000521080000003 |
WOS关键词 | QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION ; ROSSBY-WAVE PROPAGATION ; SNOW COVER VARIABILITY ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; SUDDEN WARMINGS ; ANNULAR MODES ; EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; POLAR VORTEX ; PART II |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280011 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA; 3.NOAA, Chem Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA; 4.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 5.Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Fis Tierra & Astrofis, Madrid, Spain; 6.UCM, CSIC, Inst Geociencias, Madrid, Spain; 7.Univ Exeter, Global Syst Inst, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 8.Univ Exeter, Dept Math, Exeter, Devon, England; 9.Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway; 10.Bjerknes Ctr, Bergen, Norway; 11.Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 12.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Inst Earth Sci, Jerusalem, Israel; 13.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA; 14.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland; 15.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea; 16.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 17.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA; 18.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 19.NCAR, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, Boulder, CO USA; 20.Aichi Univ Educ, Dept Earth Sci, Kariya, Aichi, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,Butler, Amy H.,Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.,et al. The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2020,125(2). |
APA | Domeisen, Daniela I. V..,Butler, Amy H..,Charlton-Perez, Andrew J..,Ayarzaguena, Blanca.,Baldwin, Mark P..,...&Taguchi, Masakazu.(2020).The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(2). |
MLA | Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,et al."The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.2(2020). |
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