资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after supereruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleodata. Here we present a reevaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized supereruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.