Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063 |
Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk | |
Ide, Tobias1; Brzoska, Michael2; Donges, Jonathan F.3,4; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich3,5,6 | |
2020-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS |
ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 62 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Germany; Sweden |
英文摘要 | Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset. |
英文关键词 | Civil war Crisis Environment Hazard Peace Violence |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000536128000004 |
WOS关键词 | SYRIAN CIVIL-WAR ; NATURAL DISASTERS ; VIOLENCE ; ETHNICITY ; SECURITY ; DROUGHT ; WATER ; DYNAMICS ; TIME |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279986 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Melbourne, Sch Geog, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 2.Univ Hamburg, Inst Peace Res & Secur Policy IFSH, Hamburg, Germany; 3.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; 4.Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden; 5.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany; 6.Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ide, Tobias,Brzoska, Michael,Donges, Jonathan F.,et al. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2020,62. |
APA | Ide, Tobias,Brzoska, Michael,Donges, Jonathan F.,&Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich.(2020).Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,62. |
MLA | Ide, Tobias,et al."Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 62(2020). |
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