Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL087253 |
Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes | |
Miller, Douglas E.1; Wang, Zhuo1; Trapp, Robert J.1; Harnos, Daniel S.2 | |
2020-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Tornadoes are one of the high-impact weather phenomena that can induce life loss and property damage. Here, we investigate the relationship between large-scale weather regimes and tornado occurrence in boreal spring. Results show that weather regimes strongly modulate the probability of tornado occurrence in the United States due to changes in shear and convective available potential energy and that persisting weather regimes (lasting >= 3 days) contribute to greater than 70% of outbreak days (days with >= 10 tornadoes). A hybrid model based on the weather regime frequency predicted by a numerical model is developed to predict above/below normal weekly tornado activity and has skill better than climatology out to Week 3. The hybrid model can be applied to real-time forecasting and aide in mitigation of severe weather events. |
英文关键词 | tornado prediction hybrid prediction weather regimes extended range |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000536639500014 |
WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; OSCILLATION ; WIND ; ENVIRONMENTS ; CLIMATOLOGY ; FREQUENCY ; OUTBREAKS ; FORECAST ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279931 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; 2.NCEP NWS NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Miller, Douglas E.,Wang, Zhuo,Trapp, Robert J.,et al. Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(9). |
APA | Miller, Douglas E.,Wang, Zhuo,Trapp, Robert J.,&Harnos, Daniel S..(2020).Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(9). |
MLA | Miller, Douglas E.,et al."Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.9(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论