Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL086797 |
Uncertainties in Future US Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections | |
Lopez-Cantu, Tania1; Prein, Andreas F.2; Samaras, Constantine1 | |
2020-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Impacts modelers and stakeholders use publicly available data sets of downscaled climate projections to assess and design infrastructure for changes in future rainfall extremes. If differences across data sets exist, infrastructure resilience decisions could change depending on which single data set is used. We assess changes in U.S. rainfall extremes from 2044-2099 compared with 1951-2005 based on 227 projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from five widely used data sets. We show there are large differences in the change magnitude and its spatial structure between data sets. At the continental scale, the data sets show different increases, with high-end extremes (e.g. 100-year event) generally increasing more (between 10% and 50%) than low-end extremes (e.g. 5-year). These differences largely contribute to the overall uncertainty for small average recurrence intervals (ARIs) extremes (2- to 10-year), while uncertainties due to short record length dominate large ARIs (25- to 100-year). The results indicate that robust infrastructure planning should consider these uncertainties to enable resilient infrastructure under climate change. |
英文关键词 | rainfall extremes downscaled climate projections infrastructure impacts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000536639500020 |
WOS关键词 | DISTRIBUTIONS ; RAINFALL ; DESIGN ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279897 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Civil & Environm Engn, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lopez-Cantu, Tania,Prein, Andreas F.,Samaras, Constantine. Uncertainties in Future US Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(9). |
APA | Lopez-Cantu, Tania,Prein, Andreas F.,&Samaras, Constantine.(2020).Uncertainties in Future US Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(9). |
MLA | Lopez-Cantu, Tania,et al."Uncertainties in Future US Extreme Precipitation From Downscaled Climate Projections".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.9(2020). |
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