Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL086913 |
Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt | |
Sherman, Peter1; Tziperman, Eli1,2; Deser, Clara3; McElroy, Michael1,2 | |
2020-03-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Understanding how internal atmospheric variability affects Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) summertime melting would improve understanding of future sea level rise. We analyze the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) over 1951-2000 and 2051-2100. We find that internal variability dominates the forced response on short timescales (similar to 20 years) and that the area impacted by internal variability grows in the future, connecting internal variability and climate change. Unlike prior studies, we do not assume specific patterns of internal variability to affect GrIS melting but derive them from maximum covariance analysis. We find that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of internal atmospheric variability associated with GrIS melt conditions in CESM-LE and reanalysis, with the positive phase (NAO+) linked to widespread cooling over the ice sheet. CESM-LE and CMIP5 project an increase in the frequency of NAO+ events, suggesting a negative feedback to the GrIS under future climate change. Plain Language Summary Melting of the Greenland ice sheet is an important anticipated consequence of human-induced climate change. The human-induced signal on the Greenland ice sheet can be modulated by internal variability (inherent atmospheric "noise" that arises due to nonlinear processes associated with atmosphere, ocean, and atmosphere-ocean dynamics). Here, we study historical and future climate simulations to assess the role of summertime internal variability on changes in melting conditions in Greenland. We find that the impact from internal variability changes in the future, which suggests a connection between this atmospheric noise and anthropogenic climate change. We then identify using a statistical technique the patterns of summertime internal variability that are most connected to Greenland ice sheet melting. We find that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of internal atmospheric circulation variability that affects Greenland ice melt conditions, both in the models and observations. Changes in Earth's radiative balance attributable to anthropogenic climate change are found to increase the frequency of positive summertime NAO events in climate models, with significant implications for Greenland's future mass balance. Understanding how these modes of internal variability influence Greenland conditions is an important and necessary step in projecting future changes in the Greenland ice sheet. |
英文关键词 | Greenland ice sheet internal variability large ensemble climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000529097700059 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; REANALYSIS ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279843 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 20 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 2.Harvard Univ, Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sherman, Peter,Tziperman, Eli,Deser, Clara,et al. Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(6). |
APA | Sherman, Peter,Tziperman, Eli,Deser, Clara,&McElroy, Michael.(2020).Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(6). |
MLA | Sherman, Peter,et al."Historical and Future Roles of Internal Atmospheric Variability in Modulating Summertime Greenland Ice Sheet Melt".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.6(2020). |
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