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High Mountain Asia is impacted by extreme monsoonal rainfall that triggers landslides in large proportions relative to global distributions, resulting in substantial human impacts and damage to infrastructure each year. Previous landslide research has qualitatively estimated how patterns in landslide activity may change based on climate change scenarios. We present the first quantitative view of potential modulation in future landslide activity over the High Mountain Asia region leveraging a new landslide hazard model and precipitation data from satellite and Global Climate Model sources. In doing so, we find that the rate of increase in landslide activity at the end of the century is expected to be greatest over areas covered by current glaciers and glacial lakes, potentially exacerbating the impacts of cascading hazards on populations downstream. This work demonstrates the potential of Global Climate Models and satellite-based precipitation estimates to characterize landslide hazards at time scales affected by climate change.

Plain Language Summary High Mountain Asia is home to both monsoonal rains and the largest concentration of glaciers outside the North and South Poles. With climate change, heavy rainfall will increase, especially in mountains near glaciers and glacial lakes. This will make landslides more likely and could present new hazards of landslides releasing a wall of water from glacial lakes, impacting communities and infrastructure are located downstream.