Distinguishing Spread Among Ensemble Members Between Drought and Flood Indian Summer Monsoon Years in the Past 58 Years (1958-2015) Reforecasts

doi:10.1029/2019GL086586

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086586
	Distinguishing Spread Among Ensemble Members Between Drought and Flood Indian Summer Monsoon Years in the Past 58 Years (1958-2015) Reforecasts
	Shukla, Ravi P.1; Shin, Chul-Su 1,2
	2020-02-28
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
出版年	2020
卷号	47 期号:4
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
英文摘要	This study examines the different characteristics of ensemble spread (ESP) between drought and flood years of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September mean using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). We have analyzed a set of 20-member ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2015 using CFSv2 initialized in April. The ESP of ISM Rainfall (ISMR) is negatively (positively) correlated with ISMR (NINO3.4) index, indicating that ESP in drought ISMR years seems to be larger than that in flood years. The mean value of ESP for drought ISMR years is larger than flood years. The spatial structure of ISMR composite anomalies during drought years shows better agreement with observed rainfall anomalies in comparison to flood years. As a result, smaller ESP in flood years may suggest that ensemble prediction of ISMR in flood years tends to be overconfident and less reliable due to underestimate of forecast uncertainty, compared to drought years.
领域	气候变化
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000529120100028
WOS关键词	PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION ; ENSO EVENTS ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; PREDICTABILITY
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279674
专题	气候变化
作者单位	1.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shukla, Ravi P.,Shin, Chul-Su. Distinguishing Spread Among Ensemble Members Between Drought and Flood Indian Summer Monsoon Years in the Past 58 Years (1958-2015) Reforecasts[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(4).
APA	Shukla, Ravi P.,&Shin, Chul-Su.(2020).Distinguishing Spread Among Ensemble Members Between Drought and Flood Indian Summer Monsoon Years in the Past 58 Years (1958-2015) Reforecasts.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(4).
MLA	Shukla, Ravi P.,et al."Distinguishing Spread Among Ensemble Members Between Drought and Flood Indian Summer Monsoon Years in the Past 58 Years (1958-2015) Reforecasts".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.4(2020).