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DOI | 10.1029/2020GL087047 |
CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols | |
Chylek, Petr1; Folland, Chris2,3,4; Klett, James D.5; Dubey, Manvendra K.1 | |
2020-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; Sweden; Australia |
英文摘要 | We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40-49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres. Plain Language Summary We compare the observed and climate models' simulated hemispherical mean temperature projections on a set of influencing factors. The influencing factors include the man-made greenhouse gases and aerosols as well as natural solar variability, volcanic eruptions, and internal climate variability. If the observed and model-simulated temperatures were the same, the projections would be very similar. We find that the projections are not similar. The climate models overestimate the cooling effect of volcanic activity and underestimate the effect of the variability of solar radiation. Our results point out that future models should improve the treatment of volcanic aerosols and solar variability to increase the reliability of climate change projections. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000529107400076 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279574 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Los Alamos Natl Lab, Earth & Environm Sci, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA; 2.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich, Norfolk, England; 3.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden; 4.Univ Southern Queensland, Int Ctr Appl Climate Sci, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia; 5.PAR Associates, Las Cruces, NM USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chylek, Petr,Folland, Chris,Klett, James D.,et al. CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(3). |
APA | Chylek, Petr,Folland, Chris,Klett, James D.,&Dubey, Manvendra K..(2020).CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(3). |
MLA | Chylek, Petr,et al."CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.3(2020). |
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