Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL086689 |
Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1,200+Years of Upper Colorado River Flow | |
Robeson, Scott M.; Maxwell, Justin T.; Ficklin, Darren L. | |
2020-01-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Bias correction, while widely used with climate-model output, is not typically applied to paleoclimatic reconstructions. While many reconstruction models have low average error, they still may contain bias, especially in the tails of distributions. Bias correction, used cautiously, can be a valuable procedure that alters interpretations of past events. Analyzing the iconic tree-ring reconstruction of Upper Colorado River flow, we find that its probability distribution is markedly different from that of observed flow. Using quantile mapping to bias correct the reconstruction, we analyze the full reconstructed record and two events in particular: the 1100s megadrought and the early 1600s pluvial. Overall, bias correction made the 1100s megadrought, the largest in the 1,200+year record, even more extreme. After bias correction, the early 1600s pluvial marginally exceeds the early twentieth century pluvial in magnitude but not in duration. Overall, bias correction should be considered whenever paleoclimatic reconstructions are compared directly to observations. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000513983400044 |
WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTIONS ; BASIN CLIMATE ; DROUGHT ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279490 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Indiana Univ, Dept Geog, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robeson, Scott M.,Maxwell, Justin T.,Ficklin, Darren L.. Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1,200+Years of Upper Colorado River Flow[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(1). |
APA | Robeson, Scott M.,Maxwell, Justin T.,&Ficklin, Darren L..(2020).Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1,200+Years of Upper Colorado River Flow.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(1). |
MLA | Robeson, Scott M.,et al."Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1,200+Years of Upper Colorado River Flow".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.1(2020). |
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