Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085378 |
Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections | |
Hausfather, Zeke1; Drake, Henri F.2,3; Abbott, Tristan3; Schmidt, Gavin A.4 | |
2020-01-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust and independent test of model skill. Here we analyze the performance of climate models published between 1970 and 2007 in projecting future global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes. Models are compared to observations based on both the change in GMST over time and the change in GMST over the change in external forcing. The latter approach accounts for mismatches in model forcings, a potential source of error in model projections independent of the accuracy of model physics. We find that climate models published over the past five decades were skillful in predicting subsequent GMST changes, with most models examined showing warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model-projected and observationally estimated forcings were taken into account. Plain Language Summary Climate models provide an important way to understand future changes in the Earth's climate. In this paper we undertake a thorough evaluation of the performance of various climate models published between the early 1970s and the late 2000s. Specifically, we look at how well models project global warming in the years after they were published by comparing them to observed temperature changes. Model projections rely on two things to accurately match observations: accurate modeling of climate physics and accurate assumptions around future emissions of CO2 and other factors affecting the climate. The best physics-based model will still be inaccurate if it is driven by future changes in emissions that differ from reality. To account for this, we look at how the relationship between temperature and atmospheric CO2 (and other climate drivers) differs between models and observations. We find that climate models published over the past five decades were generally quite accurate in predicting global warming in the years after publication, particularly when accounting for differences between modeled and actual changes in atmospheric CO2 and other climate drivers. This research should help resolve public confusion around the performance of past climate modeling efforts and increases our confidence that models are accurately projecting global warming. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000513983400002 |
WOS关键词 | CARBON-DIOXIDE ; THERMAL-EQUILIBRIUM ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; ENERGY BUDGET ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279485 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 2.Massachusetts Inst Technol Woods Hole Oceanog Ins, Woods Hole, MA USA; 3.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA USA; 4.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, Broadway, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hausfather, Zeke,Drake, Henri F.,Abbott, Tristan,et al. Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(1). |
APA | Hausfather, Zeke,Drake, Henri F.,Abbott, Tristan,&Schmidt, Gavin A..(2020).Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(1). |
MLA | Hausfather, Zeke,et al."Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.1(2020). |
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