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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076562 |
Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model Forecasts Onset, Peak, and Falling Rates of Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas | |
Norbeck, J. H.; Rubinstein, J. L. | |
2018-04-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:7页码:2963-2975 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The earthquake activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. We develop a reservoir model to calculate the hydrologic conditions associated with the activity of 902 saltwater disposal wells injecting into the Arbuckle aquifer. Estimates of basement fault stressing conditions inform a rate-and-state friction earthquake nucleation model to forecast the seismic response to injection. Our model replicates many salient features of the induced earthquake sequence, including the onset of seismicity, the timing of the peak seismicity rate, and the reduction in seismicity following decreased disposal activity. We present evidence for variable time lags between changes in injection and seismicity rates, consistent with the prediction from rate-and-state theory that seismicity rate transients occur over timescales inversely proportional to stressing rate. Given the efficacy of the hydromechanical model, as confirmed through a likelihood statistical test, the results of this study support broader integration of earthquake physics within seismic hazard analysis. Plain Language Summary Earthquake activity has surged in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, a region of the United States that historically has remained tectonically inactive. Three earthquakes with magnitude equal to or larger than 5 occurred in 2016, and researchers believe the seismic hazard in this part of the country remains high. The decade-long earthquake sequence has been attributed to subsurface disposal of salt water related to oil and gas industrial activity. In this study, we develop a model based on fluid flow and earthquake physics to link historic injection trends with the observed patterns in seismicity. Our model reproduces important characteristics of the earthquake sequences, providing an improved understanding of the fundamental processes that control induced seismicity. Our study has implications for informing induced seismicity mitigation strategies in a region currently experiencing elevated seismic hazard. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435743400011 |
WOS关键词 | WASTE-WATER INJECTION ; EASTERN-UNITED-STATES ; FLUID INJECTION ; HYDROTHERMAL CONDITIONS ; STRESS ; SEQUENCE ; MIDCONTINENT ; CALIFORNIA ; FRICTION ; INCREASE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27943 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | US Geol Survey, Earthquake Sci Ctr, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Pk, CA 94025 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Norbeck, J. H.,Rubinstein, J. L.. Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model Forecasts Onset, Peak, and Falling Rates of Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(7):2963-2975. |
APA | Norbeck, J. H.,&Rubinstein, J. L..(2018).Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model Forecasts Onset, Peak, and Falling Rates of Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(7),2963-2975. |
MLA | Norbeck, J. H.,et al."Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model Forecasts Onset, Peak, and Falling Rates of Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.7(2018):2963-2975. |
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