Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab738f |
Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period | |
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.1,5; Hegerl, Gabriele C.1; Schurer, Andrew P.1; Forster, Piers M.2; Marvel, Kate3,4 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; England; USA; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (S-hist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of S-hist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862-2012 and 1955-2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, S-hist, ranges from 1.3 degrees C to 3.1 degrees C (5%-95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862-2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 degrees C-4.6 degrees C if using the shorter period (1955-2012). We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values. We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium. |
英文关键词 | climate sensitivity detection and attribution historical period greenhouse gases |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000519021700001 |
WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS ; PART I ; MODEL ; ATTRIBUTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279246 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Univ Leeds, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 3.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 4.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA; 5.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Schurer, Andrew P.,et al. Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Schurer, Andrew P.,Forster, Piers M.,&Marvel, Kate.(2020).Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,et al."Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
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