Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b37 |
Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States | |
Harp, Ryan D.1,2,3; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.1,2,3,4 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Recent studies have revealed large and robust correlations between seasonal climate and violent crime rates at regional scales within the continental United States, begging the question of how future climate change will influence violent crime rates. Here, we combine empirical models from previous studies with 42 state-of-the-art global climate models to make such projections, while accounting for key factors like regionality and seasonality, and appropriately combining multiple of sources of uncertainty. Our results indicate that the United States should expect an additional 3.2 [2.1-4.5] or 2.3 [1.5-3.2] million violent crimes between 2020 and 2099, depending on greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We also reveal critical dependencies of these violent crime projections on various global warming targets, such as those associated with the Paris Agreement (1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C). These results emphasize the often-overlooked socially-mediated impacts of climate change on human health, with an estimated economic cost of $5 billion annually. |
英文关键词 | climate impacts health violent crime projection |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000518645200001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ; WEATHER ; OPPORTUNITY ; ANOMALIES ; TRENDS ; RATES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279242 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Univ Colorado, Earth Lab, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 4.Colorado Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth, Aurora, CO USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harp, Ryan D.,Karnauskas, Kristopher B.. Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Harp, Ryan D.,&Karnauskas, Kristopher B..(2020).Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Harp, Ryan D.,et al."Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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