Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab649b |
First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries | |
Beringer, Tim1; Kulak, Michal2; Mueller, Christoph1; Schaphoff, Sibyll1; Jans, Yvonne1 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; England |
英文摘要 | Modeling of climate change impacts have mainly been focused on a small number of annual staple crops that provide most of the world's calories. Crop models typically do not represent perennial crops despite their high economic, nutritional, or cultural value. Here we assess climate change impacts on global tea production, chosen because of its high importance in culture and livelihoods of people around the world. We extended the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, global crop model to simulate the cultivation of tea plants. Simulated tea yields were validated and found in good agreement with historical observations as well as experiments on the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations. We then projected yields into the future under a range of climate scenarios from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Under current irrigation levels and lowest climate change scenarios, tea yields are expected to decrease in major producing countries. In most climate scenarios, we project that tea yields are set to increase in China, India, and Vietnam. However, yield losses are expected to affect Kenya, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. If abundant water supply and full irrigation is assumed for all tea cultivation areas, yields are projected to increase in all regions. |
英文关键词 | climate change tea agriculture crop model climate change impacts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000537407300003 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CAMELLIA-SINENSIS L. ; VEGETATION MODEL ; PERENNIAL CROPS ; USE EFFICIENCY ; MANAGED LAND ; WATER ; CO2 ; AGRICULTURE ; FORMULATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279206 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Leibniz Assoc, Climate Resilience, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Colworth Sci Pk, Unilever Safety & Environm Assurance Ctr SEAC, Sharnbrook, Beds, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beringer, Tim,Kulak, Michal,Mueller, Christoph,et al. First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Beringer, Tim,Kulak, Michal,Mueller, Christoph,Schaphoff, Sibyll,&Jans, Yvonne.(2020).First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Beringer, Tim,et al."First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World's major producer countries".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
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