Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5d99 |
Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in | |
Wang, Huan1; Chen, Wenying1; Bertram, Christoph2; Malik, Aman2; Kriegler, Elmar2; Luderer, Gunnar2; Despres, Jacques3; Jiang, Kejun4; Krey, Volker5 | |
2020-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Germany; Spain; Austria |
英文摘要 | Emission reduction from the coal-dominated power sector is vital for achieving China's carbon mitigation targets. Although the coal expansion has been slowed down due to the cancellation of and delay in new construction, coal-based power was responsible for over one third of China's energy-related CO2 emissions by 2018. Moreover, with a technical lifetime of over 30 years, current investment in coal-based power could hinder CO2 mitigation until 2050. Therefore, it is important to examine whether the current coal-based power planning aligns with the long-term climate targets. This paper introduces China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and an ambitious carbon budget along with global pathways well-below 2 degrees that are divided into five integrated assessment models, which are two national and three global models. We compare the models' results with bottom-up data on current capacity additions and expansion plans to examine if the NDC targets are in line with 2-degree pathways. The key findings are: 1. NDC goals alone are unlikely to lead to significant reductions in coal-based power generation. On the contrary, more plants may be built before 2030; 2. this would require an average of 187-261 TWh of annual coal-based power capacity reduction between 2030 and 2050 to achieve a 2 degrees C compatible trajectory, which would lead to the stranding of large-scale coal-based power plants; 3. if the reduction in coal power can be brought forward to 2020, the average annual coal-based power reduction required would be 104-155 TWh from 2020 to 2050 and the emissions could peak earlier; 4. early regulations in coal-based power would require accelerated promotion of alternatives between 2020 and 2030, with nuclear, wind and solar power expected to be the most promising alternatives. By presenting the stranding risk and viability of alternatives, we suggest that both the government and enterprises should remain cautious about making new investment in coal-based power sector. |
英文关键词 | China power system coal lock-in stranded risks WB2C target |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000520932400001 |
WOS关键词 | PLANTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279181 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; 2.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; 3.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Edificio Expo,C Inca Garcilaso 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain; 4.Natl Dev & Reform Commiss, Energy Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Huan,Chen, Wenying,Bertram, Christoph,et al. Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(2). |
APA | Wang, Huan.,Chen, Wenying.,Bertram, Christoph.,Malik, Aman.,Kriegler, Elmar.,...&Krey, Volker.(2020).Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(2). |
MLA | Wang, Huan,et al."Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.2(2020). |
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