Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106566 |
Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature | |
Siddig, Khalid1,2; Stepanyan, Davit1; Wiebelt, Manfred3; Grethe, Harald1; Zhu, Tingju4 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS |
ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 169 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Sudan; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Sudan is a country with a predominantly rainfed agriculture which is a major contributor to GDP, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods. However, with current and projected environmental changes on the horizon there is an urgent need to measure and analyze the impact of these changes. This study analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change and consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions for mitigating the effects. We feed climate forcing data, projected water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modeling suite, which includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth. This modeling suite provides us with annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects from climate change are assessed by using a single country dynamic CGE model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic shocks of crop yields until 2050. The results reveal that extreme negative variability could cost the Sudan cumulatively US$ 105.5 billion in GDP between 2018 and 2050 compared to a baseline scenario without climate change. |
英文关键词 | Global climate change Local yield changes The Sudan Climate variability Interventions |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000510953600055 |
WOS关键词 | MODELS ; RIVER ; FOOD |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278953 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Humboldt Univ, Berlin, Germany; 2.Khartoum Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Khartoum, Sudan; 3.Kiel Inst World Econ, Kiel, Germany; 4.Zhejiang Univ, ZJU UIUC Inst, Int Campus, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Siddig, Khalid,Stepanyan, Davit,Wiebelt, Manfred,et al. Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2020,169. |
APA | Siddig, Khalid,Stepanyan, Davit,Wiebelt, Manfred,Grethe, Harald,&Zhu, Tingju.(2020).Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,169. |
MLA | Siddig, Khalid,et al."Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 169(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论