Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104688 |
Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan | |
Khan, Najeebullah1,2; Shahid, Shamsuddin1; Ahmed, Kamal1,2; Wang, Xiaojun3,4; Ali, Rawshan5,6; Ismail, Tarmizi1; Nawaz, Nadeem2 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 233 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Malaysia; Pakistan; Peoples R China; Iraq |
英文摘要 | Performance of 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was assessed according to their ability to reconstruct the different properties of heat waves (HWs); HW frequency, HW duration and HW index estimated using Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) daily temperature data for the period 1961 to 2005 in order to generate an ensemble for the projection of HWs in Pakistan. The GCMs were selected based on three criteria: (1) ability to replicate the decadal variability in HW properties, (2) ability to reconstruct the spatial distribution of HW properties based on Taylor skill score, (3) replicate the annual time series of HW properties based on standard statistical indices and compromise programming. Results revealed four GCMs: CCSM4, CESM1(BGC), CMCC-CM and NorESM1-M are the most suitable for the projection of HWs over Pakistan. Projection of HWs using the selected GCMs revealed increase in the frequency and severity of HWs in most parts of Pakistan for both the radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios used in the study. The frequency of HWs was projected to increase up to 12 events per year while the duration was projected to increase up to 100 days in a year during 2060 to 2099 for the highest emission scenario. Overall, the HWs were projected to be more frequent and longer duration in the east and the southern coastal regions. |
英文关键词 | General circulation model Climate change projections Heat waves Gridded climate data Pakistan |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000513180200001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE MODEL PERFORMANCE ; FUTURE PROJECTIONS ; CHANGE IMPACT ; CMIP5 GCMS ; TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; RAINFALL ; INDIA ; VARIABILITY ; ENSEMBLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278804 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.UTM, Fac Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; 2.LUAWMS, Fac Engn Sci & Technol, Uthal 90150, Balochistan, Pakistan; 3.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210029, Peoples R China; 4.Minist Water Resources, Res Ctr Climate Change, Nanjing 210029, Peoples R China; 5.China Three Gorges Univ, Coll Hydraul & Environm Engn, Yichang 443002, Hubei, Peoples R China; 6.Erbil Polytech Univ, Koya Tech Inst, Dept Petr, Erbil 44001, Kurdistan, Iraq |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Khan, Najeebullah,Shahid, Shamsuddin,Ahmed, Kamal,et al. Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2020,233. |
APA | Khan, Najeebullah.,Shahid, Shamsuddin.,Ahmed, Kamal.,Wang, Xiaojun.,Ali, Rawshan.,...&Nawaz, Nadeem.(2020).Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,233. |
MLA | Khan, Najeebullah,et al."Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 233(2020). |
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