资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface ozone (O-3) are major air pollutants in megacities such as Delhi, but the design of suitable mitigation strategies is challenging. Some strategies for reducing PM2.5 may have the notable side effect of increasing O-3. Here, we demonstrate a numerical framework for investigating the impacts of mitigation strategies on both PM2.5 and O-3 in Delhi. We use Gaussian process emulation to generate a computationally efficient surrogate for a regional air quality model (WRF-Chem). This allows us to perform global sensitivity analysis to identify the major sources of air pollution and to generate emission-sector-based pollutant response surfaces to inform mitigation policy development. Based on more than 100 000 emulation runs during the pre-monsoon period (peak O-3 season), our global sensitivity analysis shows that local traffic emissions from the Delhi city region and regional transport of pollution emitted from the National Capital Region (NCR) surrounding Delhi are dominant factors influencing PM2.5 and O-3 in Delhi. They together govern the O-3 peak and PM2.5 concentration during daytime. Regional transport contributes about 80% of the PM2.5 variation during the night. Reducing traffic emissions in Delhi alone (e.g. by 50 %) would reduce PM2.5 by 15 %-20% but lead to a 20 %-25% increase in O-3. However, we show that reducing NCR regional emissions by 25 %-30% at the same time would further reduce PM2.5 by 5 %-10% in Delhi and avoid the O-3 increase. This study provides scientific evidence to support the need for joint coordination of controls on local and regional scales to achieve effective reduction in PM2.5 whilst minimising the risk of O-3 increase in Delhi.