Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-20-181-2020 |
Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of the NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III | |
Kong, Lei1,2,3; Tang, Xiao1,2,3; Zhu, Jiang1,2,3; Wang, Zifa1,2,3; Fu, Joshua S.4; Wang, Xuemei5; Itahashi, Syuichi6,7; Yamaji, Kazuyo8; Nagashima, Tatsuya9; Lee, Hyo-Jung10; Kim, Cheol-Hee10; Lin, Chuan-Yao11; Chen, Lei1,2,3; Zhang, Meigen1,2,3; Tao, Zhining12,13; Li, Jie1,2,3; Kajino, Mizuo14,15; Liao, Hong16; Wang, Zhe1,2,17; Sudo, Kengo18; Wang, Yuesi1,2,3; Pan, Yuepeng1,2,3; Tang, Guiqian1,2,3; Li, Meng19,20; Wu, Qizhong21,22; Ge, Baozhu1,2,3; Carmichael, Gregory R.23 | |
2020-01-06 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 20期号:1页码:181-202 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA; Japan; South Korea; Taiwan; Germany |
英文摘要 | Despite the significant progress in improving chemical transport models (CTMs), applications of these modeling endeavors are still subject to large and complex model uncertainty. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia III (MICS-Asia III) has provided the opportunity to assess the capability and uncertainty of current CTMs in East Asian applications. In this study, we have evaluated the multi-model simulations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and ammonia (NH3) over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III. A total of 13 modeling results, provided by several independent groups from different countries and regions, were used in this study. Most of these models used the same modeling domain with a horizontal resolution of 45 km and were driven by common emission inventories and meteorological inputs. New observations over the North China Plain (NCP) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions were also available in MICS-Asia III, allowing the model evaluations over highly industrialized regions. The evaluation results show that most models captured the monthly and spatial patterns of NO2 concentrations in the NCP region well, though NO2 levels were slightly underestimated. Relatively poor performance in NO2 simulations was found in the PRD region, with larger root-mean-square error and lower spatial correlation coefficients, which may be related to the coarse resolution or inappropriate spatial allocations of the emission inventories in the PRD region. All models significantly underpredicted CO concentrations in both the NCP and PRD regions, with annual mean concentrations that were 65.4 % and 61.4 % underestimated by the ensemble mean. Such large underestimations suggest that CO emissions might be underestimated in the current emission inventory. In contrast to the good skills for simulating the monthly variations in NO2 and CO concentrations, all models failed to reproduce the observed monthly variations in NH3 concentrations in the NCP region. Most models mismatched the observed peak in July and showed negative correlation coefficients with the observations, which may be closely related to the uncertainty in the monthly variations in NH3 emissions and the NH3 gas-aerosol partitioning. Finally, model intercomparisons have been conducted to quantify the impacts of model uncertainty on the simulations of these gases, which are shown to increase with the reactivity of species. Models contained more uncertainty in the NH3 simulations. This suggests that for some highly active and/or short-lived primary pollutants, like NH3, model uncertainty can also take a great part in the forecast uncertainty in addition to the emission uncertainty. Based on these results, some recommendations are made for future studies. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000505953600001 |
WOS关键词 | GASEOUS DRY DEPOSITION ; WINTER HAZE EPISODE ; AIR-QUALITY ; ATMOSPHERIC AMMONIA ; EMISSION INVENTORY ; CARBON-MONOXIDE ; PARTICULATE NITRATE ; NITROGEN-DIOXIDE ; TROPOSPHERIC NO2 ; BOUNDARY-LAYER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278537 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LAPC, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, ICCES, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Tennessee, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA; 5.Jinan Univ, Inst Environm & Climate Res, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 6.Cent Res Inst Elect Power Ind, Abiko, Chiba 2701194, Japan; 7.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Marine Earth & Atmospher Sci, Raleigh, NC 27607 USA; 8.Kobe Univ, Grad Sch Maritime Sci, Kobe, Hyogo 6580022, Japan; 9.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan; 10.Pusan Natl Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Busan 46241, South Korea; 11.Acad Sinica, Res Ctr Environm Changes, Taipei 115, Taiwan; 12.Univ Space Res Assoc, Columbia, MD 21046 USA; 13.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA; 14.Japan Meteorol Agcy, Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan; 15.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Life & Environm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058577, Japan; 16.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Atmospher Environm & Equip, Jiangsu Key Lab Atmospher Environm Monitoring & P, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 17.Kyushu Univ, RIAM, Kasuga, Fukuoka 8168580, Japan; 18.Nagoya Univ, Grad Sch Environm Studies, Nagoya, Aichi 4640814, Japan; 19.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; 20.Max Planck Inst Chem, Multiphase Chem Dept, D-55128 Mainz, Germany; 21.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 22.Beijing Normal Univ, Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 23.Univ Iowa, Ctr Global & Reg Environm Res, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kong, Lei,Tang, Xiao,Zhu, Jiang,et al. Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of the NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2020,20(1):181-202. |
APA | Kong, Lei.,Tang, Xiao.,Zhu, Jiang.,Wang, Zifa.,Fu, Joshua S..,...&Carmichael, Gregory R..(2020).Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of the NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(1),181-202. |
MLA | Kong, Lei,et al."Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of the NO2, CO and NH3 modeling over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.1(2020):181-202. |
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