Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883

doi:10.5194/acp-2020-271

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.5194/acp-2020-271
	Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883
	Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo
	2020-06-22
发表期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
出版年	2020
英文摘要	A recent study has presented compelling new evidence suggesting that the observed Eurasian warming in the winter following the 1992 Pinatubo eruption was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere. Building on that study, we here turn our attention to the only other low-latitude eruption in the instrumental period with a comparably large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): the Krakatau eruption of August 1883. We study in detail the temperature anomalies in the first winter following that eruption, analyzing (1) observations, (2) reanalyses, and (3) models. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, the observed post-Krakatau winter warming over Eurasia was unremarkable (only between 1- and 2-σ of the distribution from 1850 to present). Second, reanalyses indicate the existence of very large uncertainties, so much so that a Eurasian cooling is not incompatible with observations. Third, models robustly show the complete absence of a volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming: we here analyze both a 100-member initial-condition ensemble, and 140 simulations from the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This wealth of evidence strongly suggests that, as in the case of Pinatubo, the observed warming over Eurasia in the winter of 1883/84 was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the Krakatau eruption. Together with the results for Pinatubo, we are led to conclude that if volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming exists at all, an eruption with a magnitude far exceeding these two (VEI = 6) events is needed.
领域	地球科学
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文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278119
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo. Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2020.
APA	Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo.(2020).Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
MLA	Lorenzo M. Polvani and Suzana J. Camargo."Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2020).