资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program, implemented in the upstream area of the Miyun Reservoir in China for 10 years, faces sustainability challenges. The issues stem from negative household responses due to the gradual weakening of its positive effects on household livelihoods. This study conducted a field survey based on a quasi-experimental method in the Luanping and Fengning Counties, Hebei Province. The average and heterogeneity effects of the PLDL program on household livelihoods regarding income and income structure were quantitatively evaluated, and the influence mechanisms were analyzed using the propensity score matching, difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method. The PLDL's impacts on total household income per capita significantly increased during the 10 years of implementation, with a significant increase impacts on off-farm income and a decrease impacts on agricultural income. However, rising price indices have weakened these positive impacts on total household income. The impacts differed with respect to the distance from residence to the secondary river, and the age and health of the household head. The PLDL program contributed to increasing liquidity of rural land and labor, further altering household livelihood activities. The results enabled recommendations to be formed regarding sustainable implementation of the PLDL based on household livelihoods.