Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL074606 |
Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate | |
Lee, Benjamin Seiyon1; Haran, Murali1; Keller, Klaus2,3,4 | |
2017-10-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:20 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (approximate to 20 years from now). |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416761600062 |
WOS关键词 | VARIABLE SELECTION ; THREAT ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27661 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Stat, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 4.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lee, Benjamin Seiyon,Haran, Murali,Keller, Klaus. Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(20). |
APA | Lee, Benjamin Seiyon,Haran, Murali,&Keller, Klaus.(2017).Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(20). |
MLA | Lee, Benjamin Seiyon,et al."Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.20(2017). |
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