Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075674 |
Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis | |
Totz, Sonja1,2; Tziperman, Eli3,4; Coumou, Dim5; Pfeiffer, Karl6; Cohen, Judah6 | |
2017-12-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; USA; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions. |
英文关键词 | precipitation anomaly seasonal forecast cluster analysis |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000422954700012 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; ANOMALIES ; SUMMER ; SHIFTS ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27652 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Univ Potsdam, Dept Phys, Potsdam, Germany; 3.Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 4.Harvard Univ, Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 5.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Dept Water & Climate Risk, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 6.Atmospher & Environm Res Inc, Lexington, MA 02421 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Totz, Sonja,Tziperman, Eli,Coumou, Dim,et al. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(24). |
APA | Totz, Sonja,Tziperman, Eli,Coumou, Dim,Pfeiffer, Karl,&Cohen, Judah.(2017).Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(24). |
MLA | Totz, Sonja,et al."Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.24(2017). |
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