GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105112
Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya, East Africa
Guirong Tan, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma
2020-06-20
发表期刊Atmospheric Research
出版年2020
英文摘要

Understanding future evolution of drought scenario across localized domains remains an imperative process in bid to adapt tailor suit innovative solutions to drought risks and their impacts. The present study examines drought events by characterizing the trend, intensity, severity and frequency based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), over Kenya, East Africa for near future (2010–2039), mid-century (2040–2069), and late century (2070–2100). The study utilizes Multi-model mean ensemble (MME) of five selected regional climate models (RCMs). Further, the models were bias corrected based on a quantile mapping bias corrected algorithm in order to minimize possible bias for accurate projections. The changes in annual and seasonal precipitation over Kenya is examined in order to associate with changes in drought occurrence. Results demonstrate positive shift, indicating an increase in projected rainfall change during all the three timescales. Projections of possible future meteorological drought events under RCPs scenario over study locale was conducted using SPI. The results demonstrate relatively better performance of biased corrected MME derived from Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA4) in simulating drought indices over the Kenya. The MME projections for drought duration show an increase in moderate drought incidences with fewer incidences of extreme events across the RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively. However, the duration of occurrences varies from one region to another with most hotspots located around northeastern sides of the country. Examination of projected changes in drought frequency and severity depict an occurrence of severe to extreme drought incidences that are expected to intensify during the near future time slice while overall projections show that more wet scenarios is depicted, with fewer cases of drought expected to occur during mid and towards end of the century of projection period. The study calls for enactment of appropriate mitigation measures to cope with possible scenarios of drought risks over Kenya in the future.

领域地球科学
URL查看原文
引用统计
被引频次:30[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/276499
专题地球科学
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Guirong Tan, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma. Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya, East Africa[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020.
APA Guirong Tan, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma.(2020).Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya, East Africa.Atmospheric Research.
MLA Guirong Tan, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma."Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya, East Africa".Atmospheric Research (2020).
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Guirong Tan, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Guirong Tan, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Guirong Tan, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。