Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2
	Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution
	admin
	2020-01-16
出版年	2020
国家	欧洲
领域	气候变化
英文摘要	Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme events to climate change by comparing climate model experiments where the influence of an external driver can be included or artificially suppressed. Many of these results however did not properly account for model errors in simulating the probabilities of extreme event occurrences. Here we show, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change. This study illustrates the need to correct for this type of model error in order to provide trustworthy assessments of climate change impacts.
URL	查看原文
来源平台	European Climate Prediction system
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/275817
专题	气候变化
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	admin. Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution,2020.