Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control

doi:10.5194/acp-2020-508

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.5194/acp-2020-508
	Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control
	Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud
	2020-06-10
发表期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
出版年	2020
英文摘要	The weather regime dependent predictability of precipitation in the convection permitting kilometric scale AROME-EPS is examined for the entire HyMeX SOP1 employing the convective adjustment timescale. This diagnostic quantifies variations in synoptic forcing on precipitation and is associated with different precipitation characteristics, forecast skill and predictability. During strong synoptic control, which is dominating the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-months period, the domain integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentiles, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes. The study also considers a prominent heavy precipitation event that occurred during the NAWDEX field campaign in the same region, and the predictability during this event is compared with the events that occurred during HyMeX. It is shown that the unconditional evaluation of precipitation widely parallels the strongly forced weather type evaluation and obscures forecast model characteristics typical for weak control.
领域	地球科学
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文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/274331
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud. Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2020.
APA	Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud.(2020).Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
MLA	Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud."Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2020).