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DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0786-0 |
Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets | |
Sigmond, Michael; Fyfe, John C.; Saenko, Oleg A.; Swart, Neil C. | |
2020-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 10期号:7页码:672-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken under increasing GHGs, it is unclear how it would respond to stabilization of global warming of 1.5 or 2.0 degrees C, the Paris Agreement temperature targets, or 3.0 degrees C, the expected warming by 2100 under current emission reduction policies. On the basis of stabilized warming simulations with two Earth System Models, we find that, after temperature stabilization, the AMOC declines for 5-10 years followed by a 150-year recovery to a level that is approximately independent of the considered stabilization scenario. The AMOC recovery has important implications for North Atlantic steric sea-level rise, which by 2600 is simulated to be 25-31% less than the global mean, and for North Atlantic surface temperatures, which continue to increase despite global mean surface temperature stabilization. These results show that substantial ongoing climate trends are likely to occur after global mean temperature has stabilized. Warming is predicted to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Simulated temperature stabilization at Paris Agreement targets shows recovery to a level independent of the target, with continued North Atlantic warming and North Atlantic sea-level rise lower than the global mean. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000537042800006 |
WOS关键词 | MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WARMING HOLE ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/273396 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sigmond, Michael,Fyfe, John C.,Saenko, Oleg A.,et al. Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2020,10(7):672-+. |
APA | Sigmond, Michael,Fyfe, John C.,Saenko, Oleg A.,&Swart, Neil C..(2020).Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,10(7),672-+. |
MLA | Sigmond, Michael,et al."Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 10.7(2020):672-+. |
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