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The Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum (MedCOF) has issued its outlook for the summer season, based on output from dynamical and statistical models and known teleconnections of large-scale climate features.

Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation conditions are expected to continue during June-August 2020. In general terms, atmospheric models seem to favour higher pressures over Central and Southern Europe, and more intense westerlies over northern Europe. Some parts of Central Europe and the Balkans have experienced significant drought over the last few months, with soil moisture below normal in May. In case of anticyclonic situations, a dry soil can enhance risk of heat waves

Within this general context, the temperature is expected to be warmer than normal over most of the domain, with a stronger signal centered on the Balkans. Over Northwestern part, the more intense westerly flow forecasted could dampen the warm signal, with more likelihood of normal conditions.

Precipitation forecasts shows drier than normal conditions over Southern Europe and Mediterranean Sea. For the rest of the region no large-scale precipitation signal is present in the forecasts. For the Southern part of the domain (North Africa), no meaningful forecast can be provided as these areas are climatologically dry during summer season.

Sub-seasonal variations, not predictable a long time in advance, may dominate at times, so regular updates to the forecast are strongly recommended.

The Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum brings together national meteorological and hydrological services, climate centres and users from Southern Europe, Caucasus, Middle East and North Africa. It operates as an overarching entity in support of the sub-regional South-East European Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) and PRESANORD (North Africa). It focuses on the large-scale forcings, such as the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, that affect the whole basin. 

MedCOF, coordinated by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) serves as a platform for interregional collaboration and allows countries with less experience in seasonal forecasting to take advantage of the expertise available in more advanced NMHSs, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and other regional entities.